I am a macroeconomist working on spatial and age inequalities. In my work, I employ theory, applied, and computational methods to answer macroeconomic questions regarding inequalities and labour markets. I hold a PhD in Economics from the University of Warwick.
I am a Visiting Assistant Professor (Lector Visitante) at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Department of Applied Economics).
Fields: Macroeconomics, Labour Economics, Economic Geography
Email: gabriele.guaitoli@uab.cat
Bluesky: @gguaitoli.bsky.social
Summary: I show that common housing modelling approaches (e.g. Cobb-Douglas production functions, normalised demand functions) may underestimate the aggregate effects of housing supply policies. I provide a general tool to understand why this is the case, what specific calibration/modelling steps introduce such biases, and what modelling choices are robust to such critique. Ultimately, it is crucial to account for how changes in supply regulations can change both the cost of satisfying the existing demand ("Baseline Effect") and how prices respond to changes in demand from the existing/reference point ("Elasticity Effect").
Summary: Limitations to workers' spatial mobility reduce access to productive jobs, misallocating labour across space and firms. Several policies aim to mitigate this misallocation, but differ in how they change the local economic conditions firms face, such as floorspace costs or agglomeration economies. I show that the effectiveness of a policy crucially depends on which firms are more sensitive to changes in local conditions. I call this sensitivity localness. Using UK microdata, I find that productivity and localness are negatively correlated, and - importantly - differently so across space. Accounting for localness heterogeneity in a spatial general equilibrium model dampens, by up to 75%, the welfare and output gains from policies, such as housebuilding programs, that decrease congestion externalities in productive locations. Intuitively, reducing local congestion costs creates low-productivity jobs rather than productive ones, as low-productivity firms are more local, in particular in high-productivity locations.
Summary: Income inequalities between old and young individuals have increased in rich countries but have fallen in developing ones. We connect these facts to long-term trends in education, growth, and demographics, and show that popular measures of (labour) earning gaps underestimate the phenomenon.
Press coverage: Washington Post
Non-technical summary: LIS "Inequality Matters" Newsletter, June 2022
Previously circulated as "Global Trends in Intergenerational Income Inequality".
Summary: Local non-pharmaceutical interventions in the USA led to negative externalities on neighbouring labour markets, both through a labour demand factor (affecting workers of locked-down businesses) and a goods demand factor (preventing locals from consuming non-tradeables and amenities in neighbouring counties).
Press Coverage: VoxEU Podcast
The power of text-based indicators in forecasting the Italian economic activity (2023), International Journal of Forecasting
with Valentina Aprigliano, Simone Emiliozzi, Andrea Luciani, Juri Marcucci, Libero Monteforte
Summary: We use 1.5 million newspaper articles to create Sentiment (TESI) and Uncertainty (TEPU) indices to forecast the Italian economy. Text data helps reduce uncertainty in monthly forecasts and improve point forecasts in high-frequency settings.
Press Coverage: Il Sole 24 Ore online; InfoData IlSole24Ore; Dow Jones; Il Sole 24 Ore, 17/03/2021, pg. 12.
2. Covid-19: Regional policies and local infection risk: Evidence from Italy with a modelling study (2021), The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
with Roberto Pancrazi
Summary: Regional non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy were not local enough since most factors associated with Covid-19 spread vary considerably at a sub-regional level.
Press Coverage: Medical Xpress, Pillole di Ottimismo (in Italian)
Inter-Generational Congestion and Spatial Labour Market Outcomes with Roberto Pancrazi (U. Warwick) and Damiano Raimondo (U. Warwick)