Gabriele Guaitoli

I am a macroeconomist working on spatial and age inequalities.

In my work, I employ both theory, microdata, and computational methods to answer macro questions regarding inequalities.

Currently, I am a PhD student at the University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

Email: g.guaitoli [at]

Twitter: @gabriguaitoli


We use text data to help forecast the Italian economy. Text data help reduce the variance around estimates in monthly forecasts, while also improving mean forecasts in high-frequency settings.

Regional non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy were not targeted enough since most factors associated with Covid-19 spread vary more at a sub-regional levels.

Working Papers

Over time, income inequalities between old and young individuals have increased in rich countries but have fallen in developing ones. We show how these facts are connected to labour market factors through long-term trends in education, growth, and demographics.

Local non-pharmaceutical interventions in USA led to negative externalities on neighbouring labour markets, both through a labour demand factor (affecting commuters of locked-down businesses) and a goods demand factor (preventing locals from consuming non-tradeables and amenities in neighbouring counties).

Work in Progress