I am a macroeconomist working on spatial and age inequalities.
In my work, I employ both theory, microdata, and computational methods to answer macro questions regarding inequalities.
Currently, I am a PhD student at the University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
Email: g.guaitoli [at] warwick.ac.uk
The power of text-based indicators in forecasting the Italian economic activity (2023), International Journal of Forecasting. Joint with Valentina Aprigliano, Simone Emiliozzi, Andrea Luciani, Juri Marcucci, Libero Monteforte
We use text data to help forecast the Italian economy. Text data help reduce the variance around estimates in monthly forecasts, while also improving mean forecasts in high-frequency settings.
In the Media: Il Sole 24 Ore online; InfoData IlSole24Ore; Dow Jones; Il Sole 24 Ore, 17/03/2021, pg. 12.
Covid-19: Regional policies and local infection risk: Evidence from Italy with a modelling study (2021), Lancet Regional Health Europe. Joint with Roberto Pancrazi
Regional non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy were not targeted enough since most factors associated with Covid-19 spread vary more at a sub-regional levels.
In the Media: Pillole di Ottimismo, Medical Xpress
Global Trends in Intergenerational Income Inequality? (2022). Joint with Roberto Pancrazi
Over time, income inequalities between old and young individuals have increased in rich countries but have fallen in developing ones. We show how these facts are connected to labour market factors through long-term trends in education, growth, and demographics.
Non-technical summary: LIS "Inequality Matters" Newsletter, June 2022
[New draft coming soon!]
Do localised lockdowns cause labour market externalities? (2022). Joint with Todor Tochev
Local non-pharmaceutical interventions in USA led to negative externalities on neighbouring labour markets, both through a labour demand factor (affecting commuters of locked-down businesses) and a goods demand factor (preventing locals from consuming non-tradeables and amenities in neighbouring counties).
In the Media: VoxEU Podcast
Work in Progress
Job Market Paper: Spatial Frictions, Firm Heterogeneity, and Labour Misallocation
Sources of Labour Market Age Inequalities