Gabriele Guaitoli
I am a macroeconomist working on spatial and age inequalities.
In my work, I employ theory, applied, and computational methods to answer macroeconomic questions regarding inequalities and labour markets.
Currently, I am a PhD student at the University of Warwick, Department of Economics. I will be joining INSEAD as a postdoc in September 2024, and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Department of Applied Economics) as an AP in September 2025.
Fields: Macroeconomics, Labour Economics, Spatial Economics
Email: g.guaitoli@warwick.ac.uk
Twitter: @gabriguaitoli
Job Market Paper
Firm Localness and Labour Misallocation
Abstract: Limitations to workers' spatial job mobility reduce access to productive jobs, misallocating labour and lowering output and welfare. Several policies aim to mitigate this misallocation by bringing workers closer to productive firms. Nevertheless, they substantially differ in how they affect the local costs firms face. For example, reducing planning regulations in productive locations lowers local rental costs. In contrast, making productive locations more attractive increases them by fostering congestion. I show that the effectiveness of these policies crucially depends on which firms are more sensitive to changes in local costs. I call this sensitivity localness. Using UK microdata, I find that productivity and localness are negatively correlated. I evaluate the effectiveness of different types of policies using a spatial general equilibrium model that, as a novelty, accounts for the observed joint distribution of productivity and localness. I find that accounting for localness heterogeneity dampens, by up to 35%, the aggregate welfare gains from policies that decrease costs in productive locations. Intuitively, lower rental costs lead to the creation of low-productivity jobs rather than productive ones, as productive firms are less local. Conversely, policies that indirectly increase local costs in productive locations are more effective, since not many productive jobs are destroyed. Finally, I show that localness heterogeneity has broader implications for how these policies shape the distribution of wages.
Publications
The power of text-based indicators in forecasting the Italian economic activity (2023), International Journal of Forecasting
with Valentina Aprigliano, Simone Emiliozzi, Andrea Luciani, Juri Marcucci, Libero Monteforte
Summary: We use 1.5 million newspaper articles to create Sentiment (TESI) and Uncertainty (TEPU) indices to forecast the Italian economy. Text data helps reduce uncertainty in monthly forecasts and improve point forecasts in high-frequency settings.
In the Media: Il Sole 24 Ore online; InfoData IlSole24Ore; Dow Jones; Il Sole 24 Ore, 17/03/2021, pg. 12.
2. Covid-19: Regional policies and local infection risk: Evidence from Italy with a modelling study (2021), The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
with Roberto Pancrazi
Summary: Regional non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy were not local enough since most factors associated with Covid-19 spread vary considerably at a sub-regional level.
In the Media: Medical Xpress, Pillole di Ottimismo (in Italian)
Working Papers
Summary: Income inequalities between old and young individuals have increased in rich countries but have fallen in developing ones. We connect these facts to long-term trends in education, growth, and demographics.
Non-technical summary: LIS "Inequality Matters" Newsletter, June 2022
Previously circulated as "Global Trends in Intergenerational Income Inequality".
Summary: Local non-pharmaceutical interventions in the USA led to negative externalities on neighbouring labour markets, both through a labour demand factor (affecting workers of locked-down businesses) and a goods demand factor (preventing locals from consuming non-tradeables and amenities in neighbouring counties).
In the Media: VoxEU Podcast
Work in Progress
Sources of Labour Market Age Inequalities
Spatial Equilibrium and Age Inequality with Roberto Pancrazi (U. Warwick) and Damiano Raimondo (U. Warwick).
Endogenous Amenities and Age Distribution in the UK with Roberto Pancrazi (U. Warwick) and Marta Santamaria (U. Warwick).